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Projeção da população mundial: 2050 e 2100

A ONU projeta que a população mundial chegue a 9,66 bilhões de habitantes em 2050 e atinja o pico em 2084, com 10,29 bilhões de habitantes, antes de recuar levemente para 10,18 bilhões em 2100 (variante média do World Population Prospects 2024). Os maiores aumentos até 2100 devem ocorrer em na República Democrática do Congo, no Paquistão, na Nigéria, na Etiópia, na Tanzânia. As maiores perdas, em na China, no Brasil, no Japão, na Coreia do Sul, na Tailândia.

Projeções não são previsões exatas: dependem de hipóteses sobre fecundidade, mortalidade e migração. Quanto mais distante o horizonte, maior a incerteza — o intervalo de 95% da ONU para 2100 vai de cerca de 9 a 12 bilhões de pessoas.

# 2050País202620502100Variação 2026–2100Pico
1Índia1.476.625.5711.679.589.2641.505.251.749+2%2061
2China1.412.914.0901.260.289.089633.368.105−55%2021
3Estados Unidos349.035.484380.846.905421.278.889+21%2100
4Paquistão259.299.792371.863.799511.000.613+97%2100
5Nigéria242.431.835359.185.557476.747.779+97%2100
6Indonésia287.886.782320.712.943295.511.063+3%2058
7Etiópia138.902.185225.021.870367.289.600+164%2100
8República Democrática do Congo116.452.162218.246.071430.709.450+270%2100
9Brasil213.562.666217.489.300163.364.063−24%2042
10Bangladesh177.818.039214.709.097208.596.514+17%2071
11Egito120.101.178161.630.196201.895.187+68%2100
12México132.997.658148.946.266130.248.835−2%2058
13Rússia143.394.457136.132.783126.386.520−12%1991
14Filipinas117.724.473134.373.432114.221.913−3%2057
15Tanzânia72.563.778129.621.091262.834.719+262%2100
16Vietnã102.177.434110.008.91191.705.113−10%2049
17Japão122.427.730105.123.16376.845.989−37%2009
18Irã93.168.492101.861.99580.045.296−14%2053
19Turquia87.926.08391.258.06865.338.458−26%2047
20Uganda52.761.46985.431.201120.835.188+129%2100
21Sudão53.282.71685.206.382136.890.755+157%2100
22Quênia58.636.40683.593.234104.195.498+78%2098
23África do Sul65.453.08379.177.33294.314.443+44%2100
24Alemanha83.644.25778.294.60670.899.865−15%2024
25Afeganistão45.047.06776.885.136130.216.736+189%2100
26Reino Unido69.931.52875.504.68574.305.411+6%2072
27Angola40.215.18074.295.397150.045.577+273%2100
28Iraque48.007.43571.928.759100.649.053+110%2100
29Iêmen42.961.66170.976.407110.035.631+156%2100
30França66.746.39868.219.68168.484.560+3%2095
31Tailândia71.559.61966.382.73145.555.066−36%2022
32Moçambique36.639.85563.530.959104.346.536+185%2100
33Argélia48.028.33759.565.55064.487.526+34%2090
34Colômbia53.936.23159.385.35247.080.758−13%2050
35Mianmar55.184.82658.623.23349.658.883−10%2049
36Costa do Marfim33.494.33955.746.985104.042.818+211%2100
37Madagascar33.522.05553.185.47385.341.145+155%2100
38Níger28.814.87852.513.88190.819.273+215%2100
39Uzbequistão37.724.22552.210.75174.350.004+97%2100
40Itália58.926.16651.891.09835.376.820−40%2014
41Camarões30.640.81551.096.32488.875.686+190%2100
42Gana35.697.55950.553.04667.547.749+89%2100
43Argentina46.003.73248.308.94538.255.992−17%2050
44Arábia Saudita35.165.78947.693.91271.006.695+102%2100
45Mali25.932.27746.154.08279.354.050+206%2100
46Canadá40.467.72445.621.88053.612.233+32%2100
47Coreia do Sul51.600.38945.143.13421.848.795−58%2020
48Espanha47.850.79244.928.56233.127.484−31%2023
49Malásia36.385.11644.289.76244.026.124+21%2072
50Marrocos38.762.44143.440.43237.884.372−2%2058
51Peru34.922.14540.583.87738.163.321+9%2066
52Chade21.560.38538.857.68669.546.606+223%2100
53Zâmbia22.521.91238.083.38464.473.919+186%2100
54Síria26.472.49637.793.37543.686.650+65%2086
55Malawi22.785.53537.361.67559.141.254+160%2100
56Burkina Faso24.601.69937.304.38749.854.237+103%2100
57Somália20.305.91237.206.50967.364.025+232%2100
58Nepal29.629.40634.642.02131.831.439+7%2067
59Polônia37.843.19632.814.09219.329.843−49%2023
60Austrália27.227.09732.506.96443.143.685+58%2100
61Ucrânia39.535.85131.990.13615.197.403−62%1993
62Venezuela28.633.72131.094.88728.280.554−1%2057
63Senegal19.366.55130.364.95347.014.189+143%2100
64Cazaquistão21.083.62426.544.26633.672.176+60%2100
65Zimbábue17.273.58425.866.38637.166.574+115%2100
66Coreia do Norte26.633.69325.787.12919.512.148−27%2032
67Sri Lanka23.348.31424.813.69421.249.404−9%2051
68Guatemala18.967.98324.670.86125.912.090+37%2077
69Benin15.170.41924.433.81439.587.567+161%2100
70Burundi14.729.16324.131.72137.873.955+157%2100
71Guiné15.441.99123.404.59332.007.045+107%2100
72Ruanda14.889.70122.707.90532.779.350+120%2100
73Camboja18.051.21921.931.45522.738.860+26%2078
74Equador18.444.50421.337.23019.092.166+4%2063
75Chile19.945.85020.320.30513.430.615−33%2041
76Taiwan23.011.29219.434.60010.016.994−56%2019
77Países Baixos18.448.77018.958.47017.507.514−5%2041
78Sudão do Sul12.436.04018.341.97523.840.778+92%2100
79Jordânia11.589.53816.367.35421.322.922+84%2100
80Bolívia12.749.29616.110.16317.760.559+39%2086
81Romênia18.800.60016.027.26910.768.185−43%1991
82Tajiquistão10.978.60015.574.64820.201.577+84%2100
83Emirados Árabes Unidos11.574.68415.367.39726.134.296+126%2100
84Papua-Nova Guiné10.947.85214.906.59218.640.539+70%2100
85Honduras11.184.76114.846.78117.029.975+52%2090
86Haiti12.037.51514.710.87115.151.089+26%2076
87Togo8.780.00413.960.02223.640.030+169%2100
88Tunísia12.415.14313.145.14010.652.235−14%2051
89Israel9.647.68913.092.72319.747.045+105%2100
90República Dominicana11.609.49912.996.29211.674.908+1%2061
91Serra Leoa8.996.74912.948.33115.934.260+77%2092
92Bélgica11.774.64711.870.90311.060.849−6%2044
93Suécia10.701.03811.309.63211.366.899+6%2079
94Azerbaijão10.454.85411.224.92110.021.317−4%2050
95República do Congo6.637.78611.006.47020.025.639+202%2100
96República Centro-Africana5.698.99010.616.75318.779.151+230%2100
97Tchéquia10.527.7849.825.5428.228.074−22%2023
98Portugal10.395.3669.770.2708.753.989−16%2010
99Laos7.974.0249.757.2849.256.282+16%2068
100Quirguistão7.400.4719.642.94911.729.826+59%2100
101Turcomenistão7.736.6329.639.7069.946.599+29%2079
102Mauritânia5.461.3219.415.60417.118.471+213%2100
103Cuba10.892.6599.381.9955.577.282−49%2012
104Suíça9.007.7949.342.5909.126.130+1%2052
105Líbia7.539.8489.260.6109.783.570+30%2086
106Libéria5.853.9538.910.53412.665.398+116%2100
107Grécia9.897.1198.812.0696.275.570−37%2010
108Nicarágua7.097.3328.756.4378.611.726+21%2071
109Hungria9.585.8198.725.3497.460.740−22%1980
110Áustria9.107.2658.724.3357.399.337−19%2023
111Paraguai7.095.2738.640.4719.047.993+28%2078
112Palestina5.692.7928.451.89611.482.182+102%2100
113Omã5.671.4557.826.99812.095.002+113%2100
114Belarus8.937.0187.453.5424.350.961−51%1993
115Líbano5.897.4626.999.2627.192.594+22%2080
116El Salvador6.391.2556.663.3485.073.225−21%2047
117Kuwait5.102.7716.367.7579.602.012+88%2100
118Dinamarca6.023.5186.124.8305.863.205−3%2042
119Hong Kong7.378.6006.090.6162.080.294−72%2020
120Singapura5.905.7486.081.6934.163.015−30%2040
121Irlanda5.356.9455.970.0405.286.118−1%2053
122Noruega5.652.9865.899.8275.413.617−4%2050
123Nova Zelândia5.287.4775.755.2795.812.289+10%2078
124Eritreia3.682.6675.696.0648.444.383+129%2100
125Panamá4.625.7195.630.6825.904.928+28%2080
126Sérvia6.641.9635.532.8623.701.503−44%1987
127Bulgária6.667.6635.402.2183.531.199−47%1988
128Costa Rica5.174.7815.354.1493.776.476−27%2044
129Finlândia5.621.7315.351.6454.601.057−18%2025
130Eslováquia5.451.3434.936.4933.427.219−37%2023
131Namíbia3.153.2484.512.3035.897.943+87%2100
132Mongólia3.556.7964.501.4925.519.346+55%2100
133Gâmbia2.884.0864.301.8995.703.045+98%2100
134Catar3.173.5684.164.4657.272.258+129%2100
135Gabão2.647.4004.084.5396.903.323+161%2100
136Geórgia3.804.6443.664.0122.969.400−22%1988
137Guiné-Bissau2.297.8143.438.6084.665.487+103%2100
138Botsuana2.603.3923.437.4333.836.826+47%2088
139Uruguai3.382.5393.254.3552.245.889−34%2020
140Croácia3.822.3463.234.1552.141.436−44%1990
141Guiné Equatorial1.984.4723.143.7315.003.220+152%2100
142Lesoto2.389.3412.993.0883.259.301+36%2083
143Porto Rico3.222.6872.503.988995.622−69%2001
144Armênia2.930.9182.495.2001.692.198−42%1991
145Bósnia e Herzegovina3.114.2472.455.1711.366.473−56%1991
146Jamaica2.833.4082.454.9441.066.769−62%2023
147Moldávia2.961.2612.351.8061.487.721−50%1991
148Lituânia2.797.3372.258.7671.208.673−57%1991
149Albânia2.751.0252.240.1701.184.999−57%1991
150Bahrein1.675.5732.139.4723.090.323+84%2100
151Eslovênia2.114.5701.981.5541.632.032−23%2024
152Timor-Leste1.436.9371.889.2481.972.927+37%2076
153Kosovo1.666.9921.643.6251.094.725−34%1997
154Djibuti1.199.4581.530.5461.841.537+54%2100
155Letônia1.835.9321.513.807925.371−50%1989
156Macedônia do Norte1.804.0621.512.685863.000−52%2005
157Chipre1.382.3371.508.4841.275.356−8%2052
158Essuatíni1.269.8631.505.3381.340.878+6%2063
159Trinidad e Tobago1.513.2721.399.799898.357−41%2028
160Ilhas Salomão858.2921.309.1121.849.206+115%2100
161Comores899.0151.307.5611.911.042+113%2100
162Estônia1.331.0631.174.264825.509−38%1990
163Maurício1.265.0621.107.198581.719−54%2015
164Fiji937.2831.000.265879.377−6%2054
165Reunião886.294941.421852.215−4%2049
166Guiana840.888940.608888.954+6%2067
167Butão802.219882.345690.432−14%2052
168Luxemburgo687.442791.461747.988+9%2061
169Saara Ocidental610.822777.321831.294+36%2089
170Suriname645.265733.907709.001+10%2071
171Macau723.196668.856331.174−54%2031
172Mayotte347.544645.4361.375.550+296%2100
173Maldivas531.516589.963474.920−11%2057
174Cabo Verde529.641566.142416.947−21%2051
175Malta549.013535.728359.935−34%2033
176Vanuatu342.575534.391875.476+156%2100
177Montenegro626.242533.299326.019−48%2024
178Brunei469.780519.557464.806−1%2055
179Belize428.658516.628447.380+4%2063
180Guiana Francesa318.881471.927775.240+143%2100
181Islândia402.332432.997362.584−10%2049
182Bahamas404.634424.272384.960−5%2050
183São Tomé e Príncipe245.000365.120534.018+118%2100
184Nova Caledônia297.893340.592337.224+13%2067
185Guadalupe372.458326.331244.466−34%1999
186Polinésia Francesa283.086284.761186.869−34%2040
187Martinica337.716282.076209.810−38%1999
188Samoa220.541272.728383.564+74%2100
189Barbados282.728264.225194.711−31%2028
190Guam170.199191.464205.505+21%2091
191Kiribati138.456182.635222.652+61%2099
192Curaçao185.457173.500120.466−35%2019
193Santa Lúcia180.496172.086108.220−40%2032
194Seicheles134.980141.756115.975−14%2042
195Micronésia114.195126.420128.155+12%2075
196Granada117.373113.25573.906−37%2031
197Tonga103.306105.205117.879+14%2100
198Jersey104.118104.78099.818−4%2043
199Ilhas Cayman77.217103.970118.033+53%2097
200Aruba108.172100.00675.189−30%2026
201Antígua e Barbuda94.63195.06267.996−28%2038
202São Vicente e Granadinas99.25488.94964.240−35%2000
203Andorra83.77482.21347.241−44%2035
204Ilha de Man84.07577.99058.077−31%2011
205Ilhas Virgens Americanas83.41271.24461.981−26%2000
206Dominica65.53063.21249.137−25%1980
207Ilhas Faroé56.55463.06063.272+12%2079
208Guernsey64.63762.82352.923−18%2030
209Bermudas64.47656.95735.691−45%2022
210São Martinho (parte holandesa)44.47351.04042.299−5%2050
211Ilhas Turcas e Caicos47.17051.01338.687−18%2048
212Groenlândia55.65049.91937.248−33%2005
213Gibraltar40.88849.81949.281+21%2070
214São Cristóvão e Névis47.01744.27430.258−36%1960
215Liechtenstein40.38843.02443.613+8%2100
216Ilhas Marianas do Norte42.93342.78541.633−3%2000
217Ilhas Virgens Britânicas39.96040.36027.912−30%2039
218Samoa Americana45.34237.57032.316−29%2002
219Mônaco38.10836.78147.509+25%2100
220Bonaire, Santo Eustáquio e Saba31.93234.76027.880−13%2045
221San Marino33.63233.71931.183−7%2020
222Ilhas Marshall35.10125.21223.826−32%2010
223São Martinho (parte francesa)23.92318.82120.028−16%2014
224Nauru12.12515.77920.684+71%2100
225Palau17.64215.53711.144−37%2004
226Anguila14.84614.5729.329−37%2036
227São Bartolomeu11.57212.8109.252−20%2046
228Wallis e Futuna11.13810.1716.896−38%2003
229Tuvalu9.3869.80212.290+31%2100
230Ilhas Cook12.8519.3597.922−38%1971
231São Pedro e Miquelão5.5374.2842.032−63%1995
232Santa Helena5.1693.9922.654−49%1987
233Tokelau2.7153.8444.385+62%2081
234Montserrat4.3523.7162.799−36%1950
235Ilhas Malvinas3.4903.1982.266−35%2018
236Niue1.8411.9882.406+31%1967
237Vaticano5177201.363+164%2100

Fonte: ONU, World Population Prospects 2024, variante média. "Pico" é o ano de maior população entre 1950 e 2100.

Atualizado em 24 de outubro de 2026.